At this point, Dodge Chief Economist Richard Branch is not forecasting a recession for 2022.
But he’s also not ruling it out.
In his mid-year update for Dodge Construction Network, Branch predicted 9% growth in the total dollar amount of construction starts for 2022. When factoring out inflation, the growth represents just 3% in real dollars.
Along with no recession, his new forecast assumes three factors:
The third assumption is the one that seems to be the most at risk to his forecast, he says. For that reason, he sees the probability of a recession in 2022 at 30% to 35%.
“So reasonably, uncomfortably high,” he said during a recent webinar.
And as the time frame increases so does the likelihood of recession.
