During the company’s 2018 Outlook conference held in Washington, D.C., last week, Dodge Data & Analytics chief economist Bob Murray delivered his forecast for construction starts for 2019, saying that the industry can expect little change from the current year in 2019.
Murray says Dodge is forecasting $808 billion in total U.S. construction starts, up slightly from the $807 billion estimated for 2018.
The forecast expects a continuation of the construction industry‘s deceleration, which began in 2016 when growth in total starts dropped from the 11- to 14-percent gains seen from 2012 to 2015, to an increase of 7 percent. Starts grew 7 percent in 2017, but growth is on pace to fall to 3 percent in 2018.
“Over the past three years, the expansion for the U.S. construction industry has shown deceleration in its rate of growth, a pattern that typically takes place as an expansion matures,” Murray says.
With this deceleration, Murray says many are wondering whether construction and the U.S. economy as a whole can expect it to be followed by another tumultuous recession. It’s Murray’s opinion that we’re not in for a repeat of 2008 and 2009. However, that doesn’t mean a recession isn’t on the horizon.
