The outlook from respected economists in the construction industry continues to be mixed as all the elements for growth are there but several factors could limit or hurt the industry’s ongoing recovery.
Bernard Markstein, chief economist at Reed Construction Data, Kermit Baker, chief economist at the American Institute of Architects and Ken Simonson, chief economist at Associated General Contractors of America each made presentations Thursday afternoon during a webinar focusing on the outlook for 2014 and beyond.
Markstein said the industry has shown clear evidence of economic improvement but notes that things could be better, alluding to what he, Simonson and Baker said was a disappointing first quarter for 2014.
However the harsh winter weather seen in many parts of the country early on this year played a big role in the so-so numbers seen in construction spending, employment and home starts, Markstein noted saying, “My view and the view of others is that there will be a bounce back.”
“We have seen relatively steady though slow improvement in the economy. We’ve seen less volatility recently and that’s critical for a foundation to a healthy construction recovery,” Baker said.
Simonson called the recovery “pretty steady but awfully gentle,” and though he has concerns, expects construction spending to grow between 6 and 10 percent in 2014, saying he believes it will be closer to 10. He said he expects that type of growth through 2017. In 2013 the industry saw 5 percent growth.
